Mathematically Predicting Trump Through a Statistical Model

My name is Ricardo Gurgel, and it’s time to apply my civil engineering background to a different kind of problem. I live in a small town near the capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, and I'm using the power of mathematical tools to run simulations and conduct an exercise in modeling Donald Trump's behavior over the course of his political journey. The idea is to assign weights to different variables and identify patterns in his reactions — whether when challenged or obeyed.

Let me clarify: this type of analysis doesn’t aim for pinpoint accuracy. It belongs to the realm of probability. It’s not a method that psychology, with its humanistic and qualitative approach, would necessarily endorse. So, don’t treat these results as absolute predictions — they are probabilistic estimates and should be interpreted as such.

Analytical Basis:

1. Behavioral history (2015–2024)

2. Crisis response patterns

3. Communication style (e.g., Twitter/X, rallies, media appearances)

4. Future political ambitions (2024 and beyond)

Likely Actions from Trump – Based on Past Behavior

1. Maintain a strong media presence (90% probability)• Trump thrives on exposure — whether through rallies, social media (e.g., Truth Social), interviews, or controversial statements, he constantly seeks to dominate the news cycle.• High likelihood of making polarizing statements to energize his base.

2. Challenge election results if he loses (70–80%)• Based on what happened in 2020, there's a high probability that Trump would claim fraud or irregularities if defeated.• This extends to primary or state-level elections if they involve his allies.

3. Support loyal candidates (80%)• Trump consistently backs those who are loyal to him. Personal loyalty is a key value.• He's quick to “cancel” former allies who distance themselves (e.g., Mike Pence).

4. Use nationalist/populist rhetoric (90%)• Expect to hear "America First," anti-immigration, anti-China, anti-globalist messaging.• This narrative resonates with his base, so it's very likely to continue.

5. Target institutions that challenge him (60–75%)• Trump tends to attack the judiciary, FBI, media, or any institution that investigates or criticizes him.• This behavior intensifies during legal proceedings or investigations.

6. Seek legal immunity or protection (60%)• If facing investigations or lawsuits, there's a good chance he’ll pursue legal or political maneuvers for protection.• This may include attempts to reshape the legal system to his advantage.

7. Promote populist economic measures (50%)• Examples include tax cuts, trade tariffs, or promises to revive U.S. industry.

Programmed to be unpredictable?

Trump’s Tariff Decision-Making Style

1. Economic Nationalism (Very High Probability – 90%+)• Trump uses tariffs to protect U.S. industries, consistent with his “America First” agenda.• This doesn’t mean he’ll keep tariffs in place — he sees them as tools to achieve goals.• He often views global trade as a zero-sum game: if another country wins, the U.S. loses.• Tariffs are seen more as bargaining chips than purely economic tools.

2. Strategic and Political Use of Tariffs (80–90%)• Tariffs aren’t just about economics — Trump uses them as political leverage (e.g., against China or Mexico).• A key example: threatening tariffs on Mexico to control immigration — using trade policy as "currency" in unrelated negotiations.

3. Unilateral and Unpredictable Decisions (60–75%)• He often bypassed multilateral agreements in favor of bilateral deals.• Tariff decisions were frequently made without warning or coordination with allies (e.g., tariffs on Canada and the EU citing “national security”).

4. Hostility Toward China (90%)• U.S.–China trade relations are central to Trump’s agenda.• He’s highly likely to increase or maintain tariffs if re-elected.• Accusations like "job theft" and "economic espionage" make these measures both economic and symbolic.

5. Aversion to Multilateral Organizations (60–70%)• Trump may challenge or downplay the role of the WTO (World Trade Organization).• He could bypass traditional institutions to impose tariff measures.

Estimated Probability of Specific Actions

Action	Estimated Probability
Increase tariffs on Chinese products	90%
Impose tariffs to protect specific sectors (steel, aluminum, etc.)	80%
Threaten tariffs as political pressure (immigration, defense, etc.)	75%
Retaliate against green policies targeting U.S. goods	70%
Cut tariffs for strategic allies (in direct negotiations)	50%
Rejoin multilateral agreements like TPP	10% or less

Conclusion

Trump sees tariffs not just as economic tools, but as levers of geopolitical power and nationalist storytelling. He tends to use them:• To project strength to his base,• To pressure adversaries,• And to reinforce his image as the "defender of the American working class."

As I finished writing this post, I was watching TCNews — a finance and capital markets news outlet — and saw that Elon Musk is furious with Peter Navarro, Trump’s former trade adviser and one of the most influential voices in his economic policies. The conflict escalated into a real "friendly fire" exchange with serious insults.

This internal tension could reshape Trump’s protectionist stance — either weakening it or pushing it further. The least likely scenario is for it to remain unchanged.

As for Navarro, his approach isn't far off from that of economic ministers in countries like Venezuela. He demonstrates a simplistic and narrow view of market dynamics, raising concerns about the effectiveness of his policies.